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制高点-第22章

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旁白:休克疗法意味着一些必需品——比如交通、食品、燃料——的价格大幅上扬。那时,人们认为只有像智利那样的军政府才有能力在不分裂社会的前提下执行如此激进的措施。
DANIEL YERGIN: Bolivia may be a small country; but it had a very big impact in terms of kickstarting reform throughout Latin America。 In Brazil; a professor; who actually used to teach the dependency theory; launched a program of economic reform that looked a lot like shock therapy。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):###是一个小国,但是它在作为引发整个拉丁美洲改革方面却具有非常大的影响。在巴西,一位曾经教授依赖理论的教授,发起了一个看起来非常像休克疗法的经济改革项目。
DANIEL YERGIN: Argentina was suffering from 20;000 percent inflation and the new president of that country said; you know; we've seen this movie before。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):阿根延正遭遇着20,000%的通货膨胀率。新任总统说,你知道,我们原来从电影中看到过这种场面。
DOMINGO CAVALLO; Economy Minister; Argentina; 2001: Promarket reforms could be implemented under a democracy; and we demonstrated that it was possible here in Argentina。
阿根廷经济部长(2001)多明戈。卡菲罗(Domingo Cavallo):支持市场化的改革可以在民主社会中实行,我们要证明,在阿根廷也可以。
NARRATOR: All across Latin America; governments began to sit up and take notice。
旁白:整个拉丁美洲的政府都开始密切关注了。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: I think the Bolivian experience did have influence。 The fact that we did it in democracy; we did it without great social violence; had impact on economic thinkers and on politicians。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):我认为###的经历的确很有影响力,我们通过民主的方式改革,没有引起大的社会###的事实对经济学家和政治家们有很大的影响。
JEFFREY SACHS: In late 1985; as we were struggling late into the night with a problem; he said; ";You know; this is extraordinarily hard; but what's happening here; this is going to have to happen all through Latin America。"; I watched it unfold; one country after another。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):1985年末,一天,我们为一个问题工作到深夜时,他说:“你知道,这的确是非常难,但是在这里发生的一切,将会在整个拉丁美洲发生。”我看到这应验了,在一个接一个的国家应验了。
NARRATOR: It is a curious fact of history that what happened in Bolivia was to have a direct impact on the frozen economies of Eastern Europe。
旁白:在###发生的事情给死气沉沉的东欧经济带来了直接的冲击,这在历史上是很不寻常的。
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Chapter 12: The Miracle Year '6:57'
第十二章: 神奇的一年
JEFFREY SACHS: I was approached by a Polish government official who had watched the Bolivian reforms; and then had seen the work I had done in Argentina and Brazil。 He finally asked me would I go to Poland and help。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):一位波兰政府官员找到了我,他看到了###的改革,然后他了解了我在阿根廷和巴西进行过的工作,他最后问我是否能到波兰去帮助他们解决问题。
Onscreen title: Warsaw; Poland
字幕标题:波兰,华沙
The Poles themselves feared that they were descending into starvation。 The shops were utterly empty for miles。 I would see a woman just standing on the street sobbing: ";There's no milk in this city。 I can't find any milk for my child。 What am I going to do?"; It was terrifying。
波兰自己很担心会倒退,会出现饥荒。方圆几英里内的商店都彻底空了,我可以看见一个妇女站在街中间哭泣:“整个城市都买不到牛奶,我的孩子没有牛奶喝,我该怎么办啊?”这很可怕。
NARRATOR: Sachs arrived on the very day that roundtable talks agreed there should be free elections in Poland。
旁白:在圆桌会议同意在波兰进行自由选举的当天,萨克斯(Sachs)来到了波兰。
LECH WALESA: The situation was more than dramatic。 One can change a political system overnight; but an economic system needs years。
莱克。瓦文萨(Lech Walesa):这种情况太戏剧性了,人们可以一夜之间改变政治体制,但要改变经济体制却要花很多年。
DANIEL YERGIN: Whenever Soviet power was challenged in Eastern Europe; the response was very clear。 It was tanks; it was the Red Army。 That was the case in Berlin in 1953; Budapest in 1956; Prague 1968。 But the answer was different in Warsaw in 1989。 Solidarity won 99 out of 100 seats。 The head of the Polish munist Party called Moscow for directions。 Mikhail Gorbachev's answer was stunning: ";Do nothing; accept the oute of a free election。"; And that was really the phone call that ended the Cold War。 And of course; the great symbol of the end of the Soviet empire was the fall of the Berlin Wall。 One country after another broke free of munism  Poland; Hungary; Czechoslovakia; Romania。 1989 was truly a miracle year。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):以前,在东欧,如果有谁胆敢挑战苏联强权的话,那结果再清楚不过了,必定是坦克、红军都一起来了。1953年的柏林、1956年的布达佩斯、1968年的布拉格都是这样。但1989年华沙的这次不同了,团结工会获得了99%的席位,波兰共产党的领导人向打电话给苏联寻求指示,戈尔巴乔夫的回答令人震惊:“什么都不要做,接受自由选举的结果吧。”正是这个电话结束了长期的冷战,当然,苏维埃帝国崩溃更具代表性的事件是柏林墙的倒塌。一个接一个的国家从共产主义中解放出来—波兰,匈牙利,捷克斯洛伐克,罗马尼亚。1989年真是奇迹的一年。
NARRATOR: Poland was free now。 Solidarity had to liberate the Polish economy。 Late one night Sachs met the Solidarity economist Jacek Kuron in a Warsaw apartment。
旁白:波兰现在自由了,团结工会不得不解放波兰的经济。一天晚上萨克斯(Sachs)在华沙的一所公寓里会见了团结工会的经济学家杰西卡。库勒(Jacek Kuron)。
JEFFREY SACHS: I was trying to explain how you get out of this mess that the munist system had left behind。 Every couple of minutes he would pound on the table; ";Pah; pah; pah";  ";Yes; yes; yes; I understand。"; And we'd gone on  ";Pah; pah";  and it was very; you know。。。 it was really exciting。 We went on for a few hours like this。 I was exhausted。 The room was filled with smoke; and he said: ";Okay; clear。 Write up the plan。"; We got up。 I said: ";Well; this will be a great honor。 We'll send you something just as soon as we can。"; ";No; tomorrow morning I need the plan。"; I laughed; and he said; ";I'm absolutely serious; I need this written down now。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):我努力地跟他讲如何收拾共产主义体制丢下的烂摊子。每隔两分钟,他就拍一次桌子,“是,是,是”——“对,对,对,我明白”,我们一直谈,——“对,对”——这真的,真的很令人激动,我们像这样谈了好几个小时,我精疲力竭,房间里充满了烟雾,他说,“好吧,搞清楚了,写出计划吧。”我们从椅子上站起身来,我说:“这将是我很大的荣幸,我们将尽快给你一些结果。”“不,明天早上我就需要这个计划。”我笑了,他说,“我是认真的,我需要现在就开始干。”
We wrote up a plan that night and delivered it the next morning。 They distributed it to the Solidarity members of the Parliament。
我们当夜就写出了一份计划,第二天早上就提交上去了,他们把这份计划分发给国会中的团结工会成员。
NARRATOR: Like Sachs; Solidarity's new finance minister; Leszek Balcerowicz; believed transition had to be rapid and massive。
旁白:与萨克斯(Sachs)一样,团结工会的新财政部长拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz)也认为行动必须迅速和重大。
LESZEK BALCEROWICZ; Finance Minister; Poland; 19891991: Just after breakthrough; there is a short period; a period of extraordinary politics。 By definition; people are ready to accept more radical solutions because they are pretty euphoric of freshly regained freedom。 One could use it only in one way; by moving forward very; very quickly。
波兰财政部长(19891991)拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):在团结工会取得突破上台后,有一段非常短的非常政治时期,这段时间里,人民已经作好了接受激进解决方案的准备,因为他们正沉浸在刚刚恢复自由的喜悦之中,可以稍微地利用这一点,很快地推进一些改革。
JOSEPH STANISLAW: Poland decided to do what Bolivia did; to introduce shock therapy; cut back on government expenditure and try and introduce a market system and see if it could work。
约瑟夫。斯坦利斯诺(Joseph Stanislaw):波兰决定学习###的做法,实行休克疗法,削减政府开支,偿试引进市场体制,看它是否能奏效。
NARRATOR: Prices almost doubled; and shortages didn't end。 All Balcerowicz could do was chew his nails and wait for the law of supply and demand to kick in。 But then; after a few days; farmers began to bring their produce to market。
旁白:价格几乎涨了两倍,短缺仍然存在,布拉泽维奇所能做的只是咬着他的指甲,紧张地等待供给需求法则发挥作用。但过了几天后,农民们开始把农产品拿到市场上卖了。
LESZEK BALCEROWICZ: I was going for a walk; and we were looking at the prices in the shops; the prices of eggs。
拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):我出去转了一下,看了看商店里商品的价格,看了看鸡蛋的价格。
NARRATOR: His aides told him to concentrate on the price of eggs。 If eggs appeared; if eggs got cheaper; the market would be working。 Eggs did appear。 And then the price of eggs began to fall。
旁白:他的助手们告诉他要关注鸡蛋的价格,假如市面上有鸡蛋卖了,假如鸡蛋的价格便宜了,就说明市场在有效地运作了。市面上果然有鸡蛋卖了,然后鸡蛋的价格开始降下来了。
LESZEK BALCEROWICZ: And I remember that very important day when the prices of eggs are falling。 This was one of the signals that the program; the stabilization program; is working。
拉扎克。布拉泽维奇(Leszek Balcerowicz):我记得鸡蛋的价格开始下降的那天,那是非常重要的一天,这是我们的计划,稳定计划奏效了的一个信号。
 。 想看书来

Chapter 13: Poland in Transition '2:39'
第十三章: 转型中的波兰
NARRATOR: But reforming stateowned heavy industries would p
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