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旁白:我们正生活在一个大变革的时代,20世纪90年代开创了新型的全球经济,每个人在全球经济中都有自己的份额,但是没有哪一个能拥有对它的控制权。
Globalization has brought unprecedented prosperity; but it has also brought crises and risks we are only beginning to understand。 It has unleashed a worldwide debate about wealth and poverty; about the ";rules of the game"; for this new era of globalization。
全球化已经带来了史无前例的繁荣,但是也已经带来了危机和风险——我们只是刚刚开始理解这些危机和风险。同时,它还引发了一场全球范围的辩论——有关富有和贫穷,有关全球化新时代“游戏规则”
DANIEL YERGIN: Historians may well say that a new era began at the beginning of the 1990s with the end of the Cold War and the Gulf crises。 It was this new era of globalization; of a world being tied together by flows of investment; of trade; of ideas; of culture; of people travelling all the time。 And it happened very fast。 And as so often happens; the change came more quickly than the ability of thinking to catch up and understand the change。 But to understand where we are today and where we're going; we have to understand this recent past。
DANIEL YERGIN:历史学家可能会说:这个新时代开始于20世纪90年代之初——冷战结束和海湾危机的时候,这是一个全球化的新时代,世界被资本流动、贸易、观念、文化和不停迁移的人们连接在一起,所有这一切都发生的极其迅速,和往常一样,人们的跟上并理解变革的思维能力跟不上变革实际发生的速度。但是,要理解我们的处境和我们的未来,我们必须理解刚刚发生的过去。
Chapter 2: The Global Idea '3:52'
第二章: 全球观念
NARRATOR: No economic idea has shaped the era of globalization more profoundly than a belief in free; open markets。 Free trade has been a fundamental tenet of capitalism for over 200 years。 But in the 1990s; the global market created a new reality that no government; no politician could afford to ignore。
旁白:自由、开放的市场观念对全球化时代的形成产生了最为深远的影响,自由贸易成为资本主义的基本信条已经长达两百年了,但是,在20世纪90年代,全球市场产生了一种没有哪个政府或政客能忽视的新现实。
Our story begins in 1992。 The global economy was changing rapidly; but America seemed adrift。 A recession had left 10 million workers unemployed。 Industries struggled against intense foreign petition。 Europe had formed a single trading bloc。 Japan looked invincible。 Japanese panies were buying up American icons; like Rockefeller Center and Universal Studios。
我们的故事开始于1992年,全球经济迅速变迁,但是美国似乎游移不定,一场衰退已经使得一千万工人失业,各个行业努力挣扎着和残酷的国外竞争进行抗衡,欧洲地区已经形成了单一的贸易集团,日本看起来十分强大,日本公司开始收购一些美国经济的标志:比如洛克非勒中心和寰宇工作室等等。
In the 1992 presidential campaign; Arkansas governor Bill Clinton claimed he could get America back on track。 He drew crucial support from America's labor unions and seemed to promise workers' protection against global petition。
在92年的总统竞选中,阿肯萨斯州长比尔克林顿宣称他能够使美国重上轨道,美国工会给予他关键的支持,他似乎也承诺保护工人群体不受全球竞争的伤害。
BILL CLINTON: Look at what our petitors do。 Look at what Japan does。 Look at what Germany does。 We have to keep investment at home so jobs don't go offshore。
比尔克林顿:看看我们的竞争对手正在干些什么,看看日本,看看德国,我们必须将投资控制在国内,这样工作机会才不会流向国外。
WORKER: You'll stand up against the good old boys to do that?
工人:你会挺身而出,反对那些老家伙吗?
BILL CLINTON: Absolutely。 What's the good of having a country if you're going to let it go down the drain?
克林顿:我一定会。如果你使你的国家的情况越来越糟,那你领导这个国家还有什么用?
WORKER: I don't know。 Why have we been doing that?
工人:我不知道。为什么我们一直在那样做?
NARRATOR: But at a meeting with Wall Street financiers; Clinton had discussed a different agenda; an agenda some of his core supporters adamantly opposed。 Financial markets wanted to rein in government spending; cut the deficit; and embrace free trade。 Without these policies; they thought America's economy wouldn't recover。 Over dinner in an exclusive restaurant; Clinton tried to persuade some of Wall Street's most seasoned executives that he saw the world as they did。
旁白:但是,在和华尔街金融家的一次会面中,克林顿讨论了一个不同的日程表——其中有些内容受到了他的核心支持者的强烈反对。金融市场希望控制政府支出、削减赤字并完全接纳自由贸易。如果没有这些政策,他们认为美国的经济无法复苏。在一家高级餐厅共进晚餐时,克林顿总统试图劝说一些华尔街最资深的高层执行官:他自己非常了解世界的现状。
ROBERT RUBIN; Cochairman; Goldman Sachs; 19901992; ; 19951999: My view was that the threshold economic issue for our country was to restore fiscal discipline after a long; long time during which fiscal discipline had eroded。
罗伯特鲁宾; 高盛公司,联合主席,19901992;美国财长,19951999:我认为,我国的首要经济问题是:如何在财政秩序被长期损害以后恢复财政秩序。
Onscreen caption: The 4 trillion in debt。
字幕:美国政府债务数字:4 万亿(美元)
BILL CLINTON: I could see that Rubin and the others that were there in this rather dark place where we had dinner at night were kind of looking and saying; ";Well; you know; can this guy from Arkansas be president? Could he possibly know enough about the economy to do it?";
比尔克林顿:在我们共进晚餐的地方,光线相当暗,但我能看到鲁宾其他一些人,知道他们的表情和想法,“你知道,这个来自阿肯萨斯的家伙能当总统吗?他可能了解足够的经济知识以胜任总统的职位吗?”
ROBERT RUBIN: After that meeting I thought to myself that this was a man who cared about what I at least thought we needed to care a great deal about。 Now; on the issue of trade; he clearly believed in trade liberalization; and that clearly has been a dividing line in the Democratic Party。 It was then; and it is now。
罗伯特鲁宾:在那次会面之后,我认为,这个人关心至少我认为我们需要非常关心的很多问题。现在,在贸易问题上,他清楚地表示信奉贸易自由化,这也是曾是民主党的一个清晰的分界线。
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Chapter 3: NAFTA: The First Test '5:28'
第三章:北美自由贸易区: 第一次实验
NARRATOR :Trade became an issue in the 1992 presidential campaign。 Republican president Gee Bush had negotiated a treaty that would allow unrestricted flows of trade and investment between the ; Canada; and Mexico。
旁白: 贸易问题成为1992年总统大选的一个问题,共和党总统乔治布什已经谈好了一项条约:在美国、加拿大和墨西哥之间允许自由贸易和投资流动。
Onscreen title: NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement
字幕标题:NAFTA:北美自由贸易协定
For its supporters; trade embodies an idea: that open markets create wealth; bind nations together; and help construct a more prosperous and a more secure world。 NAFTA put that idea to a political test。 In America; it was the first great debate of the globalization era。
对于支持它的人而言,贸易政策表现了一种观念:开放的市场能创造财富、将国家联系在一起并有助于建设更繁荣的、更为安全的世界。北美自由贸易协定将对此观念进行一个政治实验,在美国,这是全球化时代的首次重大辩论。
Onscreen title: 1992 presidential debate
字幕标题:1992年的总统竞选辩论
ROSS PEROT; Reform Party Presidential Candidate; 1992: You have to admit that NAFTA; the Mexican trade agreement; where they pay people a dollar an hour; have no health care; no retirement; no pollution controls; etc。; etc。; etc。; you're going to hear a giant sucking sound of jobs being pulled out of this country。
ROSS PEROT,改革党总统候选人,1992:你不得不承认:根据北美自由贸易协定、墨西哥贸易协定,在墨西哥,小时工资只有一美元,没有健康护理,没有退休保障,不对污染进行控制,等等,等等,你将会听到大量的工作被吸引出这个国家的巨大声音。
GEE BUSH; President; 19891993: Ross says with great conviction that he opposes the North American Free Trade Agreement。 I am for the North American Free Trade Agreement。 My problem with Governor Clinton is that one day he says he's for it; the other he wants to make some changes。 When you're president of the United States; you cannot have this pattern of saying ";I'm for it; but I'm on the other side。";
乔治布什,美国总统,19891993:Ross非常雄辩地声称他反对北美自由贸易协定,而我支持北美贸易协定。关于克林顿总统,我的问题是:有时他说他也支持,而有时又有一些变化。如果你是美国总统,你绝不能使用这样的说话方式“我支持这项协定,但我站在另外一方”。
BILL CLINTON: I am the one who's on the middle on this。 Mr。 Perot says it's a bad deal; Mr。 Bush says it's a hunkydory deal。 I say it does more good than harm if we can get the Mexicans to live up to their own labor standards; their own environmental standards; and if we have genuine protection for workers displaced in America。
比尔克林顿:关于这个问题,我正好站在中间, Perot先生说这个协定是件坏事,布什先生说这是件好事。而我说,如果我们能使墨西哥人符合他们自己的劳动标准、他们自己的环境标准而且我们能真正的保护工人不受失业之害,那么,这个协议利大于弊。
NARRATOR: Once in office; Bill Clinton's economic policy was aimed squarely at restoring the confidence of financial markets。 His first term was dominated by the battle to reduce the deficit。
旁白:就职之后,比尔克林顿实施的经济政策旨在直接恢复金融市场的信心,他的第一个任期被削减财政赤字的努力所主导。
On trade; the president changed his position; and announced he would wholeheartedly support NAFTA as it stood。
在贸易问题方面,总统改变了他的立场并宣布他将全力支持北美自由贸易协定
ROBERT RUBIN: President Clinton gave a speech i